Year 10 Mathematics – Term 3 (WA Curriculum): Probability and Statistics - Conditional Probability, Data Analysis and Statistical Modelling

What this unit covers

In Term 3, Year 10 Mathematics in the WA Curriculum centres on the unit “Probability and Statistics - Conditional Probability, Data Analysis and Statistical Modelling”.

Students explore conditional probability notation and language, analyse categorical data using two-way tables and Venn diagrams, interpret statistical distributions through boxplots, evaluate data sources for bias, and apply statistical modelling to real-world scenarios.

Lesson sequence (30 lessons)

The unit breaks down into the following lesson-by-lesson sequence — each title below is a teachable lesson, in order:

1. Understanding Conditional Probability Language and Notation
2. Interpreting 'If-Then' Statements in Probability Contexts
3. Working with 'Given' Conditions in Probability Problems
4. Calculating Simple Conditional Probabilities from Dice and Coins
5. Exploring Conditional Probability with Playing Cards
6. Using Digital Tools to Simulate Conditional Probability Experiments
7. Investigating Marble Drawing Experiments with Replacement
8. Analysing Marble Drawing Without Replacement Using Technology
9. Comparing Theoretical and Experimental Conditional Probabilities
10. Designing Digital Experiments for Complex Conditional Events
11. Introduction to Categorical Variables and Association
12. Collecting and Organising Categorical Survey Data
13. Identifying Relationships Between Two Categorical Variables
14. Calculating Proportions from Categorical Data Sets
15. Analysing Real-World Survey Data for Variable Association
16. Creating Two-Way Tables from Secondary Data
17. Constructing Venn Diagrams for Probability Problems
18. Calculating Probabilities Using Two-Way Tables
19. Solving Complex Problems with Venn Diagram Representations
20. Comparing Two-Way Tables and Venn Diagrams for Data Analysis
21. Creating Scatter Plots to Show Data Relationships
22. Describing Linear Relationships in Scatter Plots
23. Making Predictions Using Statistical Models
24. Recognising Limitations of Statistical Predictions
25. Calculating Five-Number Summaries for Data Sets
26. Constructing and Interpreting Boxplots
27. Comparing Distributions Using Multiple Boxplots
28. Identifying Sources of Bias in Data Collection
29. Evaluating Validity and Reliability of Statistical Studies
30. Applying Statistical Modelling to Sports Performance Data

Curriculum codes in this unit

Content codes:

Reading the codes: WA codes (the ones starting with WA) pack the year level, learning area, strand and content number into one string, while the national Australian Curriculum v9 uses a different anatomy that starts with AC9 — same content family, different labels. Our complete WA Curriculum guide decodes both, character by character.

Planning notes for Term 3

WA terms run roughly 9–11 weeks, and in 2026 Term 3 runs from Monday 20 July to Friday 25 September — 10 weeks for WA public schools. With 30 lessons in this unit, that leaves breathing room for assessment, moderation and the weeks that disappear to carnivals, camps and public holidays — plan the assessable work to land two to three weeks before the end of term rather than in the final week.